Second Life explains Climate Change

The Greenhouse effect

Extracted from the Second Life event : Explaining Climate Change by John Galland.

[10:22] John Galland: I’d like to begin with the basic idea of the greenhouse effect. Our air is essentially transparent to visible light, the sun’s rays go right through to the surface, and heat up the land and ocean. The surface then absorbs a lot of the Sun’s energy and warm. In turn, the surface then emits infrared. You see, everything in the universe warmer than absolute zero glows. If you’ve ever seen pictures of criminals running away from cops at night, you can see their glow in the infrared. There are certain gases in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and others….These gases can absorb the infrared radiation that the Earth emits. So the atmosphere heats up. The more of those gases in the atmosphere, the more it absorbs the infrared, and the warmer it gets. We can see this in an extreme form on Venus which has a much thicker atmosphere than ours, and it’s almost all carbon dioxide. As a results, it’s hot enough to melt lead on the surface there, in fact, if it wasn’t for the greenhouse effect, the Earth would be about 50 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than it is! So these greenhouse gases trap heat at the Earth’s surface and in the lower atmosphere. Since humans started burning large quantities of fuels, particularly fossil fuels like oil and coal, the concentrations of these gases have been going up rapidly.

Greenhouse gases over the past 10,000 years

[10:27] John Galland: these graphs show the amount of these gases in the atmosphere over the past 10,000 years. You can see the steep rise in the last about 150 years
[10:28] You: how these data was obtained, Sir?
[10:28] John Galland: excellent question! For the most part, the data before about 1950 is from ice cores. Sections of ice are drilled from Antarctica and Greenland. These sections are made from snow that falls each year, and gets compressed over time. Tiny probes are used to sample the gases in tiny bubbles in the ice so we know what the atmosphere was like going back quite a while. Carbon dioxide has increased from about 280 parts per million before industrial times to about 350 parts per million today. That’s an increase of about 35%! Methane has more than doubled. The rapid recent increase in these gases is apparent from the graph
[10:31] You: are cows the reason of it, Sir?
[10:31] Honey Carbetta: but methane is a natural gas, isn’t it?

History of methane and carbon dioxide over the past 650,000 years

[10:31] John Galland: For methane, there are two sources… One is animal digestion, the other is decomposition. Methane occurs quite naturally - swamps produce a lot of it through decomposition and there is some released through seepage from natural gas deposits. Now, this graph makes the previous one even more stark. What we have here is the history of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) over the past 650,000 years. As you can see, the recent increases are much faster, and go much higher, than any time since 650,000 years ago. I’ll let that sink in a bit….
[10:33] You: why 650, 000 years, Sir?
[10:33] John Galland: excellent question!
[10:34] John Galland: that’s because the deepest ice core we have, from Antarctica, goes back 650,000 years. We can get other data too, but it isn’t as high quality. Now, look at the bottom line….
[10:34] You: like for example?
[10:35] John Galland: well, there are little sea creatures called plankton. They can only live in certain narrow temperature bands, we can take mud from the bottom of the ocean and look at which plankton were alive at certain times and that makes a nice proxy temperature record also! Except that it’s not as precise in time as the ice core record.
[10:36] John Galland: now, the graph on the bottom is the temperature over the same period of time. Notice how close the CO2 and temperature graphs track each other
[10:36] John Galland: more CO2 -> warmer temperatures. CO2 and temperature are locked in a feedback cycle….When one goes up, so does the other
[10:37] You: why in the bottom there are higher temperatures, Sir?, like in 100 before present?
[10:37] John Galland: another great question!
[10:38] John Galland: the Earth goes through cycles between cold ice ages and warm periods in between (called interglacials). This cycle is about 100,000 years long, you can see that on the bottom graph. There were warm interglacial periods at the times of the grey vertical bars. We’re in an interglacial period now, called the Holocene - it began about 12,000 years ago
[10:39] You: and what is the origin of these cycles, Sir?
[10:39] John Galland: beautiful!
[10:39] John Galland: there are wobbles in the Earth’s orbit…for example, the tilt of the poles shifts from 21.5 to 24.5 degrees over tens of thousands of years. Also, the Earth’s orbit becomes more and less circular with a period of, guess what, 100,000 years!
[10:40] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: The interesting thing that keeps coming up is that small changes seem to make a big difference, John.
[10:40] Greg Larsen: Your graphs suggest that we have spent more time in cold ice ages than in these intergalacial periods, is that a right interpretation?
[10:40] John Galland: so these wobbles are responsible for the cycles
[10:40] John Galland: oh yes, Greg - that’s exactly right
[10:41] Trouble Welles: Could I ask a Tangential Question?
[10:41] John Galland: yes, small changes mean a lot, David, because the system tends to amplify feedbacks
[10:41] John Galland: sure, go ahead, Trouble!
[10:41] Trouble Welles: : do the current climate models include solar dimming?
[10:41] John Galland: ah, a good question….in fact some do and some don’t. This is a matter of some controversy
[10:42] Trouble Welles: so if solar dimming is true and it is masking some green house effect things could be even worse?
[10:42] John Galland: exactly. You are well-informed!
[10:42] Trouble Welles: so we could end up like Venus?
[10:43] John Galland: well, not nearly that bad. Can I mention global dimming in the next slide?
[10:43] You: So, at present we might be having two reasons for climate change, one, the cycles and another the excessive CO2 and maybe solar dimming as well? Which one is stronger and provoques more effects of climate change, Sir?
[10:43] Trouble Welles: bad enough for the oceans to boil if the methane at depth gets out?
[10:44] John Galland: great questions!
[10:44] John Galland: first, Manqo’s…..
[10:44] John Galland: the cycles are superimposed on one another. The ice age cycle is a swing of maybe 15-20 degreed Fahrenheit (10-12 Celsius) in global temperature over 100,000 years. The global warming is a little less in magnitude but a lot faster and in some ways the speed of the change is a greater threat than the magnitude. Now, Trouble - the ocean’s won’t boil, but they could get several degrees warmer if the methane escapes

Record of temperature since 1850

[10:46] John Galland: ok, this graph shows the detailed record of temperature since 1850
[10:46] John Galland: you can see the very warm period during the dust bowl in the 1930s-1940s and the steep recent rise since 1970 or so
[10:47] Greg Larsen: A question … since water expands as the temperature rises, does that contribute with any significance to the result of global warming?
[10:47] Greg Larsen: making sea levels rise?
[10:47] John Galland: Excellent, Greg - yes, about half of the projected sea level rise is because of thermal expansion, the other half because of melting glaciers and ice sheets. You are all asking such good questions!

Temperature increase around the World

[10:48] John Galland: now, here is the graph of temperature increases all around the world. Notice that warming is occurring everywhere. Also, it is more over the land than the oceans. That’s because the oceans are well mixed, they have currents that take the heat down below. Now, to come back to global dimming….it has been observed that the atmosphere grew darker because of soot and other pollutants so the Sun’s light was dimmed a little. Now, as we have done a better job of controlling those things, the atmosphere in the last couple of decades is more transparent meaning that things may be a little worse than we thought….

Changes in Temperature, Sea Level, and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

[10:50] John Galland: this chart shows the temperature change on the top, same as the one you saw before. The one in the middle shows the global sea level, which has been rising and the one on the bottom shows snow cover in the norther hemisphere, which is decreasing. The reason snow is such a concern is that it’s white, which means that it reflects a lot of sunlight. If snow and ice start to decrease, then the earth gets a little darker, which means that it absorbs more sunlight, so it gets warmer, more ice melts, and so forth. This will accelerate the warming….

Natural and human-caused effects on the Global Warming

[10:52] John Galland: this is a key graph our models cannot reproduce the last 150 years without including both natural and human-caused effects. Here is the smoking gun that people have a role in all of this. The black like is the observed temperature record, the blue is natural forcing only, and the orange is with human effects included. Note how the recent increase requires human activity to be included!

Scenarios for the future of carbon dioxide emissions

[10:53] John Galland: this graph shows the future under different scenarios
[10:54] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: John, how did you (and other scientists) determine the amount that would be there from just natural forcing?
[10:54] John Galland: ah, excellent
[10:54] John Galland: that’s based on measurements of what the natural levels of the gases are, also, on what effect changes in solar output would have. The about of warming we get depends on the choices we make. The red line here is the worst-case - if we keep growing both in population and energy usage

Global surface warming scenarios

[10:55] John Galland: not good….
[10:55] John Galland: a 3.5-4 degree Celsius global temperature increase would be a disaster
[10:55] You: what population rate increase includes this line, Sir?
[10:56] John Galland: no matter what we do, there will be some warming
[10:56] John Galland: ah, the red line is an increase to about 12-13 billion which is double today’s population
[10:56] Trouble Welles: so wouldn’t the easiest, fastest, cheapest method to fix all this be *massive* efforts for human contraception?
[10:56] John Galland: the blue line is the best-case scenario, in which we take all the precautions we can, actually,the yellow line would be if we could stabilize greenhouse gases at today’s levels
[10:57] You: and in what way does it include life style? there are some of us who waste more energy than others
[10:57] John Galland: but that ain’t gonna happen….
[10:57] John Galland: yes, that’s true…. the worst case is based on that pattern continuing - that we don’t work together to solve it
[10:57] John Galland: right now, the US and Australia produce the most CO2 per capita but in 30 years, that will change
[10:58] You: China and India
[10:58] John Galland: India and China, with their rapidly growing economies, will overtake us
[11:00] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: You can see this is a very big problem, requiring many changes in world and individual behavior
[11:00] John Galland: and I should mention, please go to the IPCC website
[11:01] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: One last thing before continuing… we will be observing Earth Day on April 22 in Second Life.
[11:03] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: By the way, did anyone see Al Gore’s introductory talk to Congress?
[11:03] John Galland: I read most of a transcript

Scenarios of the future global temperature changes

[11:03] Trouble Welles: Have any of these kinds of slide shows been shown to policy makers who support growth in it’s many forms?
[11:04] Trouble Welles: i mean no one says hows co2 that new subdivision is going to put out
[11:04] John Galland: Sadly, they have… And those people yawn and go back to promoting the policies that favour growth and campaign donations. Now, that said, there are a number of people working on sustainable development. Soso, who was here earlier, is an expert
[11:05] Ryan Orbit: John- what do you think about “green” growth? the idea that we can even create new industries addressing these problems?
[11:05] You: so, we might need a new economic theory for sustainable growth, not just the capitalist economic theory of growth
[11:05] John Galland: I think that’s possible, but I have to be really honest here….
[11:05] Ryan Orbit: please do
[11:06] John Galland: fixing this problem, in my opinion, cannot happen with the current mode of production
[11:06] Trouble Welles: well not all of them i know of a small town that has stopped it’s sewer line expansion would you say that would be a good first step locally?
[11:06] John Galland: which means that the number of jobs we have must decrease
[11:06] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: What do you mean by the current mode of production?
[11:06] John Galland: at the same time as population increases…..
[11:06] Ryan Orbit: that’s a hard proposition to sell to policy makers
[11:07] John Galland: like Manqo suggests, a consumer capitalist model
[11:07] John Galland: based on consumption of products we don’t need
[11:07] You: I would say that first, it is a population problem, and second a life-style issue that is part of our consumist and capitalist model of free market
[11:07] John Galland: Manqo, you are right on point
[11:07] Ryan Orbit: do you think like any of the proposals about brining externalities (like carbon emissions, etc) into the economic system look promising?
[11:08] John Galland: some of that could work
[11:08] Trouble Welles: i know of places that have stopped subdividing their land is that a step in the right direction?
[11:08] John Galland: frankly, none of the solutions are pleasant ones
[11:08] John Galland: that could work, I think
[11:08] John Galland: but we need higher-density housing with public transport. There are huge efficiencies there with large tracts of carbon-absorbing forests around
[11:09] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: It takes a lot of thinking and digesting before it becomes clear how unusual and difficult this situation can become
[11:09] Trouble Welles: even if it encouraged more development?
[11:09] John Galland: and polyculture agriculture
[11:09] You: we need more sustainable development, not only more development
[11:09] John Galland: exactly
[11:09] Ryan Orbit: how do you feel about the timeline John?
[11:10] Ryan Orbit: these are what you would call generational changes
[11:10] Trouble Welles: but i thought development was the problem?
[11:10] You: and a sustainable population, not just more population and cheap labour
[11:10] John Galland: scared out of my skull, frankly
[11:10] John Galland: we need action NOW and that has to happen at the personal level first, we can’t wait for the policy folks to do it. Permanent, sustained changes in lifestyle
[11:11] Trouble Welles: fewer children?
[11:11] John Galland: that would help, too
[11:11] John Galland: energy consumption is increasing faster than population so both have to be tackled simultaneously and I have no idea what can be done with the growing economies in Asia
[11:12] Trouble Welles: it seem to me fewer childrem would also cut energy consumption?
[11:12] John Galland: absolutely
[11:12] You: what can you tell us about the Point of No Return, Sir?
[11:12] John Galland: we have no grounds to ask them to cut their lifestyles when we refused to do it
[11:12] John Galland: well, we will get some warming no matter what
[11:12] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: John, can I say something?
[11:12] John Galland: sure
[11:12] John Galland: please do
[11:13] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: For some, this is all an immense and threatening situation, and there are so many questions. I want to mention that there are people in science and policy who have been analyzing and writing about all this for many years. Anyone who is interested can find excellent books (as well as Web sites) to gain
[11:14] John Galland: absolutely
[11:14] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: more information… it is hard to absorb it all at once.
[11:14] John Galland: it is….and I would like to see lots of discussion like this, the more the better

Projected patterns of Precipitation Changes (Scenario A1B: 720 ppm CO2): DJF: December, January, February - JJA: June, July, August

[11:15] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: John, I think you and I can put together a “short” list of suggestions for people to get more information, on the science, on what to do, etc. Right?
[11:15] John Galland: yes, that would be great!
[11:15] Ryan Orbit: is everyone aware of what sundance channel is doing in SecondLife?
[11:15] John Galland: I haven’t heard of them
[11:15] Ryan Orbit: they are starting a series of environmentally themed film showings
[11:15] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: OK, I will sit down again. Thanks.
[11:16] Ryan Orbit: to spur discussion, it would be great if you guys could somehow promote the real science through that?
[11:16] John Galland: That’s a great idea. I’m saving the chat log, and will look them up for sure
[11:17] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: John, one way I think of it is that we all have to be more aware, and act on that… and when we have a chance, choose government that will also take this very seriously
[11:17] John Galland: that’s my take on it too. It has to start with the individual
[11:18] kyle9112 Wei: when was the last time an actually elected government was in office
[11:18] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: Yes, some things can only be done by government… but they need popular pressure to do it
[11:18] John Galland: if we wait and hope that the powers that be will somehow change their spots, it’ll be a long warm wait
[11:18] Tanoujin Milestone: i noticed dense housing, public traffic… and somebody mentioned cheap labour? Laast point i do not understand… to cut consumption?
[11:18] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: haha kyle… right
[11:18] John Galland: oh, I’m not at all a fan of cheap labour
[11:19] Trouble Welles: overpopulation causes cheap labor
[11:19] Tanoujin Milestone: ty, John
[11:19] John Galland: that maintains the current system. Trouble is right
[11:19] Trouble Welles: too many people going after the same job
[11:19] John Galland: yep, but, in my opinion, it is the very concept of depending on “jobs” that is the issue. That system has brought us here
[11:20] You: I think that behind government decisions, there must be education on this topic. If they do not know the topic, they will make the wrong decisions despite they want to make good ones or if we suppose to vote for the good officers.
[11:20] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: I agree, HRH
[11:20] John Galland: I agree too, except that there are far too many who sense the implications of this and adopt strategies like personal attacks to avoid having to face it. I wish I was more knowledgeable on the solution side….I’ve focused so much on the science
[11:22] John Galland: mind if I put in a pitch for your site, David?
[11:22] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: No, not at all I don’t mind :–)
[11:23] John Galland: planetthoughts.org - take a look at it!
[11:23] You: yes, I think the change process has to be done smoothly, silently and constantly either with government and population. We need to understand the global effects, our own effects and measures that we can implement. Human beings are intelligent but bad informed
[11:23] John Galland: HRH, again you put your finger on the critical point
[11:23] PlanetThoughts Raymaker: The Web site is focused on the problems we are discussing, as well as energy needs.
[11:23] John Galland: yes
[11:23] John Galland: well, folks, I need to head off
[11:23] John Galland: it’s been a great pleasure!
[11:24] John Galland: please contact me anytime to talk more
[11:24] John Galland: and do get active here in SL

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